2020 Presidential Election:
Jumptuit’s Observation-Based Trending Data and Sentiment Analysis Provides More Accurate Results Than Traditional Polls
On the eve of the election, famed and renowned statistician, FiveThirtyEight (owned by ABC) Founder and editor-in-chief, Nate Silver, named in 2009 by Time as one of The World's 100 Most Influential People, gave Former Vice President Joe Biden a 9-in-10 chance of winning the 2020 Presidential election. The vaunted international weekly publication, The Economist, was also in lockstep, giving Former Vice President Joe Biden a 97% chance of winning the 2020 election.
The polling this election cycle and news coverage provided the public with an inaccurate picture of the state of the Presidential Campaign.
The final NBC News/The Wall Street Journal National Poll still had a 10-point spread favoring Biden (52% Biden, 42% Trump). Quinnipiac, on the day before the election, reported an 11-point Biden advantage (50% Biden, 39% Trump). The latest vote count nationally has Biden at 50.4% and Trump at 47.8%. The electoral college contest remains competitive two day after the polls closed.
The polling in the battleground states also failed to reflect the degree of tightening in the race.
Quinnipiac’s final polls in Florida showed Biden with a 5-point lead over Trump (47% Biden, 42% Trump), and a 4-point advantage in Ohio (47% Biden - 43% Trump). On election day in Florida, Biden lost the state by 3.4% (51.2% Trump, 47.8% Biden). The Quinnipiac poll underestimated Trump’s support in Florida by approximately 9%. On election day in Ohio, Biden lost the state by 8%. The Quinnipiac poll underestimated Trump’s support in Ohio by more than 10%.
Most pundits, analysts and media organizations predicted a definitive Biden win. Widely reported, Rupert Murdoch, Chairman of Fox Corporation (which owns Fox News and The Wall Street Journal), privately predicted a landslide victory for Biden.
On the eve of the 2020 Presidential Election, based on an analysis of quantitative and qualitative data, trending events and sentiment, a comparison of early voting turnouts in 2016 and 2020, and the probability/feasibility of repeat under/outperform numbers in the previous election cycle, Jumptuit projected (Jumptuit Forecast) narrow wins for Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin, decisive wins for Trump in Florida and Ohio, and close contests in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Two days after the election, these three states, that will determine the outcome of the election, have yet to be decided.